WhoDeyRevolution

Building Through the Draft - A Proven Failure

A constant Bengals refrain under the Brown Regime has been that the Bengals strategy to a Super Bowl is to build through the draft.  Shunning high priced free agents in favor of shrewd drafting, the theory goes, will lead the team to glory.  The recent Odell Thurman saga has proven this theory to be as sound as creationism.

The CW says to wait 3-4 years to judge a team's draft.  Well, ignoring the dark years from 1991-2002, Marvin's draft classes have largely proven to be tremendous busts, with the 2005 class coming in as perhaps one of the worst draft classes in Bengals history.  The Baltimore Sun has picked up on this, as well as Comrade Blog Stripe Hype, calling the 2005 draft a "Marvel of Ineptitude." 

Out of the 2005 draft, 5 of the Bengals 7 picks are no longer with the team: David Pollack, 1st round (17th); Odell Thurman, 2nd round (48th); Chris Henry, 3rd round (83rd); Adam Keift, 5th round (153rd); and Tab Perry, 6th round, (190th).  Eric Ghiacuic, the teams 4th rounder has moved into a starting role, but has impressed few.  7th rounder Jonathan Fanene has a total of 5 tackles in his three years on the team.  Talk about building a foundation for a champion!

Overall, only 21 of the Bengals' 42 picks of the Marvin Lewis Era (2003-2007) are still with the team. 

AFC North Preview (Unabridged Version)

As mini-camps start and rosters start to take form, we here at WhoDeyRevolution are taking our first stab at predicting the division. I am listing the teams in order of where I think they will finish this year—and yes, you’ll have to scroll down for a bit to find the Bengals.

The AFC North should be extremely competitive this year, in part because I see all four teams losing a lot of non-conference games. This year, the AFC North matches up with the tough NFC East division, including a solid Eagles team, playoff contending Washington Redskins, pre-season Super Bowl pick Dallas Cowboys, and oh yeah, the defending Super Bowl champion NY Giants. The schedule this year for all four teams means that, in terms of strength of schedule (based on 2007 finish), the Steelers have the hardest schedule in football, the Ravens are at #5, and the Browns and Bengals are tied with the seventh hardest schedule.

Given the tough slate of opponents, the intra-division battles should be even more intense. Overall, I don’t think any team in our division will win more than 11 games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a team won the division at 10-6 or even 9-7. I give the nod to the Steelers, who have dominated in division play. The Browns—much like the Bengals—remain a wild card, but I don’t see either one overcoming glaring problems on defense. In the end, I think Marvin Lewis is right that smash-mouth football rules this division. We saw it last year when the Steelers completely controlled the tempo of both games our by pounding the ball. I think with the addition of Rashard Mendenhall, it will be more of the same.

Click here to read the preview (warning, it is very long).

Thinking Inside the Box

Things going on over on the offensive side of the ball... We've got a franchised player who isn't even slated to start this year in "project" Stacy Andrews... We've got a star WR who doesn't want to be here in Chad Johnson... And we've got a mess in the backfield, where we don't even know who the starting RB is going to be. But enough about them already. I want to talk about defense.

When you look at our front 7, or the "box", not a lot is recognizable.  Justin Smith jumped on the first offer he received faster than Drew Carey can slam a 5 dollar foot-long. We lost Landon Johnson, the team's leading tackler, in free agency to Carolina. Caleb Miller decided that he wanted to pursue his other passion and left for the seminary. 

We've got some new faces in there including LB Keith Rivers, DE Antwan Odom, DT Pat Sims, DT Jason Shirley, in addition to some obscure RFAs.  These four new guys all have the potential to have a big impact on the performance of this defense.  But this will all hinge on the play of the interior D-Line.  For anything to work this year, we need BIG play from our bigmen.  It is time for Peko, Thornton, Myers, and the new kids to step it up and start wreaking havoc.  If they can do this it will allow the rest of the defense to do what they do, and that is play fast, hit hard, and make plays. 

Speaking of playing fast, lets take a look at the linebacking corps.  This was perhaps the most unsettled area of the Bengals team last year.  Plagued by injuries and shoddy play, and even playing one game with safety Chinedum Ndukwe in a linebacking spot, this position was the poster child of the Bengals reign of futility.  However things are looking up this year.  We've picked up Keith Rivers with the #9 pick in the draft as someone who can play all 3 positions very well.  Odell Thurman, a catalyst of the AFC North Championship team in 2005, has returned and is looking to make an big impact.  And several other younger players are going to look to make their mark, including Eric Henderson and Darryl Blackstock.

Here is how I see the starting lineup taking shape for the season opener:

DE- Geathers and Odom

DT- Peko and Thornton  (Sims, Shirley as backups)

OLB - Odell Thurman

MLB - Keith Rivers

OLB - Tough call, either Dhani Jones or Rashad Jeanty

It doesn't look like an all-star cast, but I do think if the chemistry is right this group could have a strong season.  But like I said, it ALL depends on the young DTs Sims and Shirley stepping in right away, and strong play from Peko and Thornton.  We will have to wait and see.  Let's hope that Mike Clown got it right, and this Sims kid is the real deal.

The Drugstore List

I thought it would be a good idea to see where the Bengals draft picks stacked up against the Drugstore List.  The Drugstore List is put out every year by Jerry Jones, a former Mariemont pharmicist who had a number of Bengals coaches and management as customers.  As they left to coach other teams, his network increased.  Jerry Jones is the most respected (and consistently accurate) man in draft projections. 

Depth, Depth, and More Depth

You don’t draft in the first two rounds to add depth when you are a sub-.500 team. Sadly, this is a concept that Marvin Lewis and co. haven’t seemed to grasp in five years of drafting. Not trading up for Sedrick Ellis was inexcusable. Not trading Chad Johnson for two first round picks was inconceivable. But after watching Marvin piss away his fifth draft in six years, I must say I’m almost relieved we didn’t detract talent from this year’s team in order to add future picks. Almost.

WHO NEEDS A PLAYMAKER?

Keith Rivers will be a solid yet unspectacular player, much like the last two first round picks, Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph. He’ll have a career somewhere between Brian Simmons and Landon Johnson, and that won’t be all that bad- particularly if Odell Thurman and Ahmad Brooks can play up to their potential on the outside.

I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach on Jerome Simpson, who bears a scouting report awfully similar to TJ Houshmandzadeh. I’m in the minority of Bengals fans who actually wanted a receiver in the second round (and again in the third) mainly because I’m not a believer in Trevor Laws or the other D-lineman that were available around the 46^th pick.

However, my initial reaction to the Simpson pick was pure disgust - not because of his small-school resume but because of his lack of upside.  Every single scouting report projects him to be a #2 receiver at best - again, not something you should be aiming for in the Top 50 selections. Of course they would take him when the Roy Williams-esque Limas Sweed was still on the board. And they wouldn’t think of trading up for James “Plaxico” Hardy. 

The problem is that this regime never aims for the stars, they’re content getting guys who project to be league average starters, or even worse, rotational depth. When you target players like this, you’re going to end up with your John Thorntons, Brian Robinsons, Antonio Chatmans and Reggie Kellys - guys who are at best league average, and at worse, solid depth.

Marvin has never fully grasped this concept. When he drafted Chris Perry in the first round of the 2004 draft instead of selecting Stephen Jackson, who projected to be an absolute home-run back on everyone else’s draft board, he announced that Perry would provide great depth to the running back position. It sounds eerily similar to how he justified the selection of Simpson over the multitude of bigger home run threats on everyone else’s draft board.

Think that was the only time he opted for depth over a playmaker in the second round? How about in 2006 when he took Andrew Whitworth, who has been a surprisingly pleasant addition to the “rotation of the offensive line,” while a couple of playmakers went in the next five picks afterwards. Their names? Devin Hester and Maurice Jones-Drew. All this coming at a time when our top return man was none other than Keiwan Ratliff. 

Hell, even our “franchise player” Stacy Andrews was franchised because he provides depth on the offensive line. I’m willing to reserve judgment of the Simpson pick, especially given the praise heaped upon it by the NFL Network gurus (who panned the rest of the Bengals draft in the same segment,) but I really hope Bratkowski knows what he’s doing here. 

(more after the jump...)

Decent Draft Overshadowed by Ongoing Problems

The Bengals' selection of some very promising players is overshadowed by two problems that have plagued us in the past and still need to be addressed.  But before discsussing this and the strengths of the draft, let's address the most controversial pick of the weekend.

The Jury is Still Out

Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina: Roughly 80% of Bengals fans hate this pick but I really don’t mind it.  The main reason most seem to hate this pick is because people believe we could’ve gotten him in the third round or later.  But in hindsight, Mark Curnutte reports that the Steelers were considering picking Simpson seven slots later.  What we often lose sight of on draft day is that the 32 NFL teams aren’t using Mel Kiper’s draft board.  Each team spends months looking at film, visiting with and ranking their own players and we don’t know what any team’s draft board looks like.  With the mixed reviews on Malcolm Kelly and Limas Sweed, after doing some research on Simpson, there is reason for excitement.  He’s 6-2, has a 41 1/2 inch vertical and runs in the 4.4’s.  Not only that, he has freakishly long arms and enormous hands, which counts for a couple extra inches of height (why 6-6 Eric Hicks played like he was 6-10 for your Cincinnati Bearcats).  Considering all this, Simpson sounds like a potential stud to me.  That being said, by making this selection over other top name receivers, his entire career  should draw step by step comparisons to both Malcolm Kelly and, especially, Limas Sweed who wound up going to Pittsburgh (maybe only because Simpson was gone).  Yes, the pick is questionable but it deserves at least a couple of years to play out before it is ripped as heavily as it has been already.

Two Common Problems

The selection of Fresno State defensive tackle, Jason Shirley makes no sense.  We heard phrases like “high character,” “great motor” and “effort guy” for Keith Rivers, Jerome Simpson, Pat Sims, Andre Caldwell and Corey Lynch.  Then we pick up a guy who played three games his senior season because he was suspended.  He also is awaiting his court date for suspicion of drunk driving.  Have we not learned anything from damaging suspensions and the public ridiculing of drafting problem players in the past?  Yes, it is a late round selection but up until this pick, we seemed to have shed the mentality of drafting guys with questionable character at a discount.  But, apparently, those days are not over.  Odds should be created on whether this guy will get a DUI in our city (with no public transportation and very few taxis) in the next calendar year. 

Bengals Mangement Reaffirms Need for Who Dey Revolution

I am certainly not a football scout, so I will not cram the intertubes with any of my "expert analysis" on the future success of the Bengals draft picks.  Keith Rivers and Jerome Simpson might make the next 15 Pro Bowls in a row or they may be taking a number at the unemployment office behind Chris Henry in a few years.  I'll let others entertain these arguments.

What was made perfectly clear at the draft, however, is that nothing has changed - Bengals management is still a complete joke.  The team was totally outmaneuvered in the first round, made a huge reach in the 2nd, drafted guys late with huge red flags and a couple guys late with local ties.  This has been the Bengals draft day approach for years - why did I think that something would be different this time around?

Round 1 - Keith Rivers, LB, USC

Whether or not they played their hand before the draft, anyone with any football knowledge knew that our top 2 targets in Round 1 were Sedrick Ellis or Derrick Harvey.  Well, the Saints and Jags knew it too - and traded up in front of the Bengals to snag them. 

As Comrade Buck pointed out, why was Mike Brown willing to trade a 3rd and 5th rounder for Shaun Rogers but not trade a 3rd rounder for Sedrick Ellis?  (The Saints traded their 10th overall and 3rd round pick to the Patriots for their 7th overall AND a 5th rounder).  Did Brown even try and trade up to ensure that they could take Ellis? Reports out of New Orleans show that the Saints called every team ahead of them in the draft to try and trade up - so the Bengals management had to know the Saints were working deals to jump ahead of them to take Ellis.  And what did Mike Brown do?  NOTHING. 

As I said before, Sedrick Ellis could be the reincarnation of Big Daddy and Keith Rivers could become the reincarnation of Dick Butkis - that is not the point.  The point is that the Bengals identified Sedrick Ellis and Derrick Harvey as their top targets and sat around and let other teams trade ahead and take their picks.

(more after the jump)

2008 Bengals Draft Recap

The 2008 NFL Draft has come and gone, and the Bengals went down the middle on their 10 draft selections, taking five players on offense and five on defense.

Initial Reactions: 

1st Round:  The Keith Rivers pick was solid, but you have to wonder why they would be willing to give up  a 3rd and 5th round pick for Shaun Rogers yet won't give up a 3rd to move up and take Sedrick Ellis at #7.  Regardless, the Rivers pick is a solid pick who doesn't miss tackles and gives the Bengals someone to count on in a very cloudy, if crowded, linebacker situation.  That being said, the Cowboys and Saints DESTROYED the Bengals in this draft, trading up to take players that you have to assume were high on the Bengals board.   

2nd Round:  Coastal Carolina has a football team?  Well they do and the Bengals found their wideout Jerome Simpson, who impressed Bengals coaches at the combine and on film.  I understand we need receivers, but I was in attendance at Monster Park in San Francisco for the 49ers-Bengals game last year.  Chris Henry was healthy, Chad Johnson was healthy, TJ Houshmandzadeh was healthy.  Guess what.  The Bengals STILL LOST THE GAME.  Why?  Because Shaun "Montana" Hill threw all over a Bengals defense that can't stop anyone.  I refuse to understand the Bengals philosophy here.  The Bengals front line (specifically pass rush) has absolutely killed this team in the Marvin Lewis era, and it has made the Bengals shaky secondary look worse.  Carson Palmer is not the kind of QB who will pout over not having elite receivers to throw to.  If he went 5 for 11 every game and the Bengals went 11-5, he would be the happiest guy on the team.  Simpson very likely would have been around in the 3rd round, maybe later.  It doesn't matter how good Simpson ends up being...the Bengals got poor value. 

3rd Round:  Finally, the Bengals address their needs at defensive tackle with Auburn's Pat Sims, and finally I can end my hunger strike that began after the second round pick that left Trevor Laws, Limas Sweed & others on the board.  The Bengals were fortunate that Sims was still here in the third round, and they can now use him in a rotation with Thornton (how long will he be here?), Peko, Myers, etc.  For their compensatory pick, the Bengals pick up a kick returner in Andre Caldwell (Florida) who could project to be a solid third or fourth receiver for Carson Palmer.  Surprised to get another WR here, honestly.  At least the guy has big game experience playing in the SEC.

4th Round:  Anthony Collins out of Kansas is a solid offensive tackle who will project to play right tackle in the pros and hopefully will have the versatility to play guard as well.  The Bengals have always been decent at developing offensive lineman, and you have to like the pick especially with the new uncertainty surrounding Levi Jones.   

Tune in Tomorrow for WDR NFL Draft Live Blog

Live Blog of the NFL Draft will begin right here at 2:00 on Saturday, April 26th.  Check back then....

Bengals Draft 2008 - Other Players to Watch and Potential CFA's

DeJuan Tribble, CB, Boston College

A North College Hill graduate, Tribble had an extremely productive career for the Eagles, displaying big play ability in coverage and also returning punts/kicks.  He has had a few brushes with the law, but insiders at BC stand firmly behind the fact that Tribble is a stand up guy.  Plus, Bengals "scouts" won't have to go far to learn more about Tribble from his high school coaches here in Cincinnati.  If the character and size issues cause him to fall to the fifth round, Tribble could be a Bengal.

Mario Urrutia, WR, Louisville

Urrutia isn't exactly the big play, deep threat that Chris Henry was, but he is tall (over 6'5") and would be a perfect developmental/late round draft pick.  The Bengals worked him out and could potentially take him with their compensatory selection in the 6th round.

Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton

Always good to keep an eye on schools where Marvin Lewis has ties, and Lewis has had Hampton coaches in to PBS to speak to area youth football coaches on more than one occasion.  Langford would help a defensive line that desperately needs to force more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Dexter Jackson, WR, Appalachian State

Out of the Eddie Royal mode, Jackson would be another shifty, small, and explosive receiver who can  also pay big dividends returning punts.  His two touchdowns against Michigan proved he can play with the big boys.

Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno State

The guy is massive:  6'5", 320 lbs.  Why is he not ranked higher than the 7th round?  Multiple off the field problems including DUI and conduct detrimental to the team.  Plus he was driving around with expired tags (a fan favorite among Hamilton County Sheriffs).  If he's still available as a CFA, and with the Bengals history for giving people second (aka twelfth) chances, Shirley is literally too big to pass up.

Other Players to Consider...

Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest

Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati

Jo-Lonn Dunbar, OLB, Boston College

Kenny Moore, WR, Wake Forest (Led ACC in receptions last season with 98)

Letroy Guion, DT, Florida State

Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina

Chad Rinehart, OG, Northern Iowa

Barry Booker, DT, Virginia Tech

Jonathan Goff, ILB, Vanderbilt

Joe Jon Finley, TE, Oklahoma (Also goes by J.J. Finley)

Jesse Nading, DE, Colorado State (This guy looks like Justin Smith's twin...right in the Bengals wheelhouse)

If you missed WDR's 10-pick Bengals mock draft, check it out right here. 

For the record, my new prediction for the Bengals first round pick is Vernon Gholston.  Too many negative vibes on him the last few weeks...and we know the Bengals love taking Buckeyes high in the draft.