AFC North Preview (Unabridged Version)

As mini-camps start and rosters start to take form, we here at WhoDeyRevolution are taking our first stab at predicting the division. I am listing the teams in order of where I think they will finish this year—and yes, you’ll have to scroll down for a bit to find the Bengals.

The AFC North should be extremely competitive this year, in part because I see all four teams losing a lot of non-conference games. This year, the AFC North matches up with the tough NFC East division, including a solid Eagles team, playoff contending Washington Redskins, pre-season Super Bowl pick Dallas Cowboys, and oh yeah, the defending Super Bowl champion NY Giants. The schedule this year for all four teams means that, in terms of strength of schedule (based on 2007 finish), the Steelers have the hardest schedule in football, the Ravens are at #5, and the Browns and Bengals are tied with the seventh hardest schedule.

Given the tough slate of opponents, the intra-division battles should be even more intense. Overall, I don’t think any team in our division will win more than 11 games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a team won the division at 10-6 or even 9-7. I give the nod to the Steelers, who have dominated in division play. The Browns—much like the Bengals—remain a wild card, but I don’t see either one overcoming glaring problems on defense. In the end, I think Marvin Lewis is right that smash-mouth football rules this division. We saw it last year when the Steelers completely controlled the tempo of both games our by pounding the ball. I think with the addition of Rashard Mendenhall, it will be more of the same.

Click here to read the preview (warning, it is very long).

Pittsburgh Steelers

2007 Finish: 10-6 (1st place)

2008 Prediction: 10-6 (1st place)

Key Additions: RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Limas Sweed

Key Losses: G Alan Faneca, LB Clark Haggans

I’ll start each section with the personnel changes, which can really change the face of a team. On balance, the Steelers probably lost a little more than they gained, with the departure of OG Alan Faneca and LB Clark Haggans being slightly offset by a weak free agency and a so-so draft. Anyone who has watched us play the Steelers over the last few years should have seen how good Faneca was at guard—I still remember a game in 2006 when he was just blowing Peko five yards off the ball. No question, he’s a huge loss as both a player and a team leader. On the defensive side of the ball, Haggans will be missed more from a leadership perspective given that his physical skills seem to be in slight decline. Still, he wreaked havoc in AFC North games, and his loss is a good thing for us.

The Steelers’ draft class provides some intrigue; Mendenhall could very well end up being the best back of this  class, a big, tough bruiser who fits in perfectly with the Steelers’ style of play. He already has an exceptional change-of-pace partner in “Fast” Willie Parker, so the two could easily become one of the best duos in the NFL. Limas Sweed seems like a possession WR to me—which is probably fine given that Roethlisberger is a scrambler who could use a tall possession receiver on 3rd downs and Red Zone plays. Santonio Holmes is emerging as a big play threat, and Hines Ward (aka Bengal killer) is still one of the savviest and most elusive WRs in the league (if I hear one more thing about his “incredible blocking” I will knife someone).

Overall, the Pittsburgh D is still strong and the offense should get a small boost with the addition of two playmakers. I have long held out hope that Roethlisberger would be a bust, but he’s proving to be one of the better QBs in the game; translation: not good. If Ben can keep his head on straight and they can keep some stability at O-Line, I don’t see anyone taking the title away from the Steelers.

Cleveland Browns

2007 Finish: 10-6 (2nd place)

2008 Prediction: 9-7 (2nd t place)

Key Additions: DT Shaun Rogers, DT Corey Williams, WR Donte Stallworth,

Key Losses: CB Leigh Bodden, their entire 2008 Draft

Unlike the mainstream media out there—most of whom picked Cleveland to finish DEAD LAST a year ago—we here at WDR are no fly-by-night reporters. We have built our reputation on weeks of fine journalism. That said, maybe it’s because I’m wary of free agency—or maybe it’s because I just hate the Browns—but I don’t see this team doing anything special this year. In fact, I don’t even see them making the playoffs.

To recap, yeah, they won some games last year—10 of them, in fact. They also went 3-3 in the Division, losing twice to the Steelers, and barely splitting with us. With the exception of the Texans and Seahawks, the teams they did beat were, by and large, very subpar: Bengals, Rams, Dolphins, Bills, 49ers, Jets, Ravens (twice). I mean, that list is a who’s who of losers. So, a soft schedule combined with opponents who had no idea that Derrick Anderson had talent, and you have a good season.

Not gonna be so easy this year. The Browns—like everyone in our division—have a much harder road and will get no sympathy from Divisional foes. Adding Rogers and Williams should go a long way to shore up the 26th ranked rush D, but what about their pass D that ranked 24th and mustered just 28 sacks? I don’t see Rogers, Williams, or any of the other free agents adding much of a pass rush. Add to that, the loss of Leigh Bodden. For those who don’t know him, he is one of the better corners in the AFC North if not the league—a tough, physical guy who Chad Johnson hated going up against. To me, he was a big loss.

Overall, the Browns will likely go as far as their high-powered offense can take them. Braylon Edwards has emerged as one of the elite WRs in the game; Kellen Winslow is basically another very good WR (he’s NOT a TE); Jerivicius and Stallworth add savvy veteran skills and possession-type games. In terms of running, the Browns have built the single best left side offensive line in the North with Steinbach and All Pro OT Joe Thomas. If they can get another solid year out of Jamaal Lewis, they could very well be in the hunt. However, I see a brewing QB controversy and too many spare parts as distractions that will undermine the season. I also think opening losses to the Cowboys and Steelers will put them in an 0-2 hole that they won’t climb out of until it’s too late.

Cincinnati Bengals

2007 Finish: 7-9 (3rd place)
2008 Prediction: 6-10 (3rd place)
Key Additions: LB Keith Rivers, TE Ben Utecht, DT Pat Sims, LB Odell Thurman, DE Antwan Odom 
Key Losses: LB Landon Johnson, S Madieu Williams , DE Justin Smith, WR Chad Johnson???

When I think about the 2008 Bengals, all I have are questions and no answers:

Will Rudi Johnson return to form?

Will Keith Rivers, Ahmad Brooks, and Odell form the greatest LB corps ever?

Will Pat Sims and Jason Shirley become the run-stuffing DTs we’ve dreamed about for years?

How many players will get arrested?

Will Chris Perry strap on a pair and actually play?

On and on. Usually, question marks in Bengaldom turn into “L’s” once the season rolls around. The schedule this year is brutal, and we haven’t done much to help ourselves in the offseason—have we?

Let’s start with our 27th ranked defense. We added some potential upgrades at DT and may get a boost at LB with Rivers, Odell, and a healthy Brooks to go along with some good LB depth (Dhani Jones, Eric Henderson, Rashad Jeanty and the dudes from Arizona.

If anything, we shouldn’t run out of LBs this year. I think our run D will actually be improved this year if our starters can avoid major injuries. What concerns me most is our pass D.

You will recall that last year the Bengals finished with a paltry 22 sacks—DEAD LAST in the NFL. We’ve all seen what a good pass rush can do for a team (Exhibit A: The NY Giants). In my opinion, Odom is a slight upgrade over Justin Smith as a rush end. Geathers—if paired with a solid DT combination—has proven he can get to the QB, although 2.5 sacks last year is just embarrassing in the wake of a major contract extension.

Overall, I think the Bengals will struggle on pass D once again. It starts upfront with an inability to get to the QB—they simply don’t have the type of dominant pass rushers needed at this level. This will really expose an inexperienced secondary, which will likely be manned by CB Jonathon Joseph, CB Leon Hall, FS Dexter Jackson, and SS Chinedum Ndukwe. I know that Dexter has traditionally been the SS, but I see Ndukwe as being a little further ahead of Marvin White at the Safety spot, so I think he’ll get the nod. Look for White to get the start around the Bye Week—or if we start out 0-4.

Joseph has the physical tools to be a shut down CB, but he has been too inconsistent. I actually like Leon Hall, despite some very bad plays as a rookie, and I think Ndukwe and White could be solid. Hopefully, new Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer will bring a scheme that helps get pressure upfront to allow a young secondary to mature. Overall, I think the defense is headed in the right direction (nowhere to go but up), and I love the Zimmer hire, but it will be a few years before they get things settled.

On to the offense.

Our once mighty and high-powered offense is beginning to show some wear and tear and it could very well find itself dropping outside of the top 10 this season. While the defense was hit fairly hard with injuries last year, you could argue that the offense has had it twice as bad, losing RB’s Chris Perry, Kenny Irons, and Rudi Johnson as well as OT’s Willie Anderson and Levi Jones for several games. The results have been obvious: more sacks, more INTs, fewer yards per rush, poor Red Zone production.

Chad-Gate won’t help any of this. However, while the Bengals have relied heavily on their pass offense, Marvin Lewis is correct in pointing out that they need to get a better running game. Barring injury, the Bengals do have one of the better offensive lines in the game, so it remains to be seen if a reliable RB can shoulder the load. Most likely, we’ll be looking at some combination of Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, Chris Perry/Dede Dorsey. However, it will be important for Offensive Coordinator Bob Bratkowski to avoid the predictability of last year and make sure to mix up the plays so that different personnel can execute them.

Finally, the Bengals did well to address a long-standing need by picking up TE Ben Utech from the Colts. Hopefully, Utecht will become the kind of safety blanket that TJ Houshmandzadeh has been for Carson Palmer on 3rd down and give him another option so he doesn’t force the ball. Overall, I’d expect Palmer to have a solid 25-30 TD season, but I still think his INT numbers will remain a bit high due to working with younger WRs. Overall, if the Bengals can get the running game on track, they can overcome some of the sting of losing Chad Johnson—which I think is a done deal. I’d expect them to be solid but not spectacular on offense, which should be enough to get them in the 6-10 or 7-9 win range against a brutal schedule.

Baltimore Ravens

2007 Finish: 5-11 (4th place)

2008 Prediction: 5-11 (4th place)

Key Additions: QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, LB Tavares Gooden

Key Losses: QB Steve McNair, OT Jonathon Ogden??

I’ll start this section with a story: over Labor Day last year, I was back in Cincinnati and a group of us went to The Precinct restaurant, home of the world’s greatest steaks. Chris Collinsworth—he of Bengal lore—sat down at the table next to us. Eventually, someone asked him how he thought the AFC North would shape up in 2007. He responded, “I think the Bengals have a shot with Carson Palmer, but that Ravens defense is just too tough. And with Steve McNair still there, I have to go with the Ravens.” 100% true story. The Ravens went on to finish last in the Division, at 5-11.

Interesting Side Note: As anyone who has eaten at the Precinct knows, the Steak Collinsworth is the greatest steak ever. Period. It’s a perfectly cooked 9 oz filet with a small piece of king crab on top. Collinsworth, forgoing his namesake, went with the Steak Roth. Is this guy serious?

My point in this long diversion is that we hear the same tired things about teams every year. The fact is, the Ravens did nothing in free agency and did little in the Draft. Their defense is getting old, and their DB’s are not what they once were. This team can be exposed on the back end when Ed Reed gets overly aggressive. When they struggle to get to the QB—as they did last year with just 32 sacks, or 19th in the league—they tend to give up points. Let me elucidate this with some statistics: last year, the Ravens ranked 6th in overall defense (based on yardage), but in terms of points allowed, with 24 per game they ranked a sub-par 22nd overall. There’s something rotten in Denmark and it's the Raven's D.

On offense, this team is miles away from effective. With QB Steve McNair retiring, they have perhaps the biggest question mark in the division at QB. Do they go with the unproductive Kyle Boller? Or do they give rookie Joe Flacco a shot? My answer: who cares, they will be terrible either way. If Jonathon Ogden does decide to retire, the O-line has some serious issues, and I don’t think RB Willis McGahee is good enough to carry the load himself.

Although I do think the Ravens have a slightly underrated WR corps—Clayton and Mason are decent, Heap is a good TE, Yamon Figurs is a dynamic return guy, and I love upside on Demetrius Williams—I don’t see new head coach John Harbaugh putting the pieces together. I think it’s time to rebuild in Baltimore and it won't be a quick fix.

Comments

[Drew]

Hurts to say this is spot on. Good post.

[raindogzilla]

Let me just state for the record that I hate Ben Roethlisberger and, then, completely omit commenting on the Steelers preview.

Agreed on the Browns. They really played over their heads last year. Shaun Rogers is every bit as likely to be a fat flop as he is to shore up the run defense. Bodden is a huge loss. I see Anderson as that rookie pitching phenom with all the gaudy stats, standing on the brink of having to go through the league all over again- as a known quantity.

My Bengals questions/comments:

Will Mike and Marv finally put the team before their newfound ethical stand and trade Chad after June 1?

TJ isn't a #1 receiver. He's gonna have all sorts of problems trying to make plays being doubled and jammed at the line. That said, can either Simpson or Caldwell- maybe even Gabriel, provide enough of a threat to free TJ up?

Regardless of whether Rudi is in fine fettle or Chris Perry is finally healthy, if we get no more push off the ball in the middle than we did last year, this return of focus to the running game may be nothing but an exercise in futility. Can Ghiaciuc man up? Will it be Andrews pairing up with Bobby Williams at guard?

How much of a pounding will Carson end up taking, faced with third and long all season- thanks to that innovative Bratkowski playcalling?

I have this weird feeling that Jason "Don't Call Me" Shirley is going to be a devastating force in the middle of our D-Line, right next to a rotation of Peko and Sims. Opposing centers will see his film and remember to pack extra drawers before their trip to PBS.

At some point during the season, particularly if it's going poorly, Mike Brown will be shanghai'd by subversive Bengal rebels and pictures of him next to various tourist attractions will crop up on the internets. No one will notice he's gone.

[Andrew Simon]

I disagree about your characterization of the Steak Roth. It is a delicious pepper-crusted filet. Who wants crab getting in the way of their steak?