Bengals Mock Draft: v 2.0

   

A lot has changed since my first mock draft--unfortunately, none of that change occurred in the Bengals' scouting department.  For those who appreciate brevity and don't want to read about all the picks, I'll sum up my thoughts here: the Bengals are in a tough position at #9, given that the top 3 or 4 defenders they would most want are likely to be off the board (DE Chris Long, DE/OLB Vernon Gholston, DT Glenn Dorsey, and DT Sedrick Ellis).  What this should mean is that the Bengals should consider trading out of the #9 spot--either up or down--to get one of the players they want, or to secure more draft picks on Day 1 (but only on Day 1).  You'll have to read on to find out how I think things will shake out and who the Bengals are likely to pick up (NOTE: I'm only going to #9 since that's where we pick).

#1 Miami Dolphins: Chris Long, DE, Virginia

Most people by now have the son of NFL Hall-of-Famer Howie Long going to the Dolphins.  I hesitated here because I think that not only does Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College) have a shot, but I also think that Vernon Gholston may have shot up high enough that he would be a tempting guy for the Tuna to consider (can he be molded into a Lawrence Taylor-type OLB?).  But, for now, I'll go with general consensus.

#2 St. Louis Rams: Vernon Gholston, DE, The Ohio State

He's soaring up draft boards, just had a huge Pro Day to follow a huge Combine.  He would pair nicely with their 1st pick from last year, DT Adam Carriker.

#3 Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

They need to replace Michael Vick with the polar opposite--squeaky clean kid with the ability to become a pure pocket passer.  Getting a new QB is usually a good way to sell a few tickets, too, which Falcons' owner Arthur Blank needs to do.

#4 Oakland Raiders: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

Here's where the DT's starting getting swiped.  There are rumors floating that Dorsey has a stress fracture which could affect his career; whether or not that's true, we probably won't know for another year or two, but he's too talented to pass up and I think the Raiders are itching for the next Warren Sapp (Dorsey could be even better than Sapp).

#5 Kansas City Chiefs: Jake Long, OT, Michigan

If the draft shapes up this way, it may be a good thing for the Bengals.  If either Dorsey or Elllis slide past KC, I don't see the Jets, Pats, or Ravens jumping after a DT.  Jake Long makes a ton of sense for the Chiefs, whose once-great offensive line has been miserable the last few years.

#6 New York Jets: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

The Jets would love to have Vernon Gholston here, but since he's gone, they turn their attention to improving their sluggish offense (ranked 26th in the NFL last year).  McFadden is one of the better homerun backs to come out in a while, but scouts think his game might not translate to the NFL a la Reggie Bush.  Mangini has his own ideas and certainly doesn't want McFadden falling to the Pats, who can be very unpredicatable.

#7 New England Patriots: Keith Rivers, LB, USC

A lot of people see the Pats going DB here given the number of defensive backs they lost in free agency.  But Belichick has proven he can win with guys like Ashley Ambrose and Hank Poteat in the defensive backfield, so I don't think he's overly concerned.  Their aging LB core, which has long been the strength of this unit, is cause for concern though, so I think Rivers would fit nicely.

#8 Denver Broncos (via trade from Baltimore Ravens): Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

That's right people, here's where we get punched in the fun bags.  With QB Matt Ryan off the board, the Ravens are in a position to trade down and potentially get their choice of a second-tier QB (like Brian Brohm) or one of several excellent DB's in this Draft.  Trading with the Broncos also gets them at least one extra pick, which they could use after sacrificing a 3rd Round pick to get Willis McGahee last year.  Furthermore, they get to send a huge middle finger to the Bengals, whom they know covet the services of Sed Ellis.  Such is life.

#9 Cincinnati Bengals: Kentwan Balmer, DT, UNC

I shudder to think about the draft looking like this, but I could definitely see us over-paying for the services of a DT like Balmer since we missed out on several in free agency.  Other options--all of whom would be a reach at this point--include DE Phillip Merling, DE Derrick Harvey, S Kenny Phillips, and OT Jeff Otah or Ryan Clady.

Again, this is the point where the Bengals should trade down and target the best available LB's and DT's with low 1st and high 2nd round picks.  There are several DT's who could offer help inside that will fall to the low 1st or 2nd round, including Pat Sims (Auburn), Frank Okam (Texas), Dre Moore (Maryland).  In addition, there are a lot of DE/OLB "tweeners" who could drastically improve the pass rush, including Purdue's Cliff Avril (4.51 40-yard dash) and Auburn's Quentin Groves (4.57).

Simply put, my greatest fear is that the Bengals sit tight at #9 and draft a guy that doesn't match the value at that spot.  They would be far better off either trading up to get Dorsey or Ellis (if they don't fall to us), or trading down and maximizing value.  You've been on the clock for 17 years, Mike Brown, so it's high time you did something right.

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Comments

[Klinglered]

I'm now hoping McFadden drops b/c I have no faith in any of the top four defensive lineman being there at #9, and there is no one else worth taking who'be be left